European COVID-19 Scenario Hub

The European Scenario Hub brings together scenario modellers across Europe. We work collaboratively to:

We combine and interpret the work of many modelling teams, focussing on cases, deaths, and hospitalisations over the next 12 months in 32 European countries.

Separately, we also produce collaborative short-term forecasts across Europe at the European Forecast Hub. The European Hubs are run in collaboration between the Epiforecasts team (part of the Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine), and the European Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (ECDC).

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European COVID-19 Scenario Hub What is scenario modelling?

Scenario modelling combines the best-available epidemiological evidence with realistic assumptions on key uncertainties in order to create future trajectories of relevant indicators. From this, rational policies can be adopted at an early stage. Comparing results contributed by different modelling teams can highlight important parameters, assumptions and sources and the magnitude of their uncertainty, that would otherwise be difficult to capture.

The Scenario Hub will be updated by collating long-term modelling scenarios for thirty EU/EEA Member States, the UK and Switzerland. Each potential scenario is composed of one or more plausible and policy-relevant variables, while scenarios cover a period of nine to twelve months. Instead of just using single projections, the hub combines and compares different modelling projections from different modelling teams across Europe. The hub can thus contribute to increased confidence and robustness of drawn conclusions and insights.

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European COVID-19 Scenario Hub Why is this important?

The European COVID-19 Scenario Hub will serve as a resource for European countries in their pandemic planning; and inform decisions aimed at minimising the expected burden caused by COVID-19 under different scenarios.

“The Scenario Hub will help inform public health preparedness and anticipatory action as Europe transitions into new phases of the pandemic. It will also play a key role in supporting ECDC’s risk analysis, assessment of public health advice and strategic planning.” Andrea Ammon, ECDC Director

“Exploring plausible scenarios for the future of the COVID-19 pandemic can provide valuable insights for planning purposes. This Scenario Hub will bring together the expertise of different modelling teams to help policymakers come to informed decisions.” Sebastian Funk, Professor of Infectious Disease Dynamics at LSHTM

Learn more from presenters from our launch event