Scenarios

Scenario description

We asked teams of researchers across Europe to use quantitative models to project COVID-19 outcomes for 32 European countries over the next year. In order to explore different sets of assumptions about drivers of the pandemic, we asked teams to vary four sets of parameters. We can describe this in a 2x2 scenario specification:

Age 60+ booster campaign
  • 2nd* booster recommended for 60+
  • Uptake starts 15th September, and reaches 50% coverage by 15th December
Age 18+ booster campaign
  • 2nd* booster recommended for general population, ages 18+
  • Uptake starts 15th September, and reaches 50% coverage by 15th December
Optimistic vaccine effectiveness
  • Increased booster vaccine effectiveness to that seen against Delta variant
Scenario A Scenario B
Pessimistic vaccine effectiveness
  • Reduced booster vaccine effectiveness against infection from BA.4/BA.5/BA.2.75 variants
Scenario C Scenario D

See also the full scenario details for more detail on the common set of assumptions teams used to create their models.

In Round 2, we asked modellers to start their projections from the 2022-07-24. Data after this date were not included, and as a result, model projections are unlikely to fully account for later information on the changing variants or behavioural patterns.

In this report we only show results from countries with at least 3 models.

Current situation

We consider vaccination rates in countries for which multiple teams of modellers contributed projections.

Participating teams

6 models contributed scenario projections to Round 2.

Models

Participating teams by number of countries and horizon
Team Countries Weeks
USC-SIkJalpha 31 52
ECDC-CM_ONE 28 53
MODUS_Covid-Episim 1 53
RIVM-vacamole 1 53
SIMID-SCM 1 52
UC3M-EpiGraph 1 41

Countries

Number of independent model projections for each target variable and location
Code Country Infection Case Hosp Icu Death
BE Belgium 1 3 2 1 3
DE Germany 1 2 2 0 1
ES Spain 1 3 2 0 2
NL Netherlands 1 3 2 1 3

Cumulative outcomes

For each model and scenario, we compare the total number of outcomes over the entire projection period as a % of the total country population. We compared the cumulative number of projected outcomes to the cumulative total over one year before projections started (July% 2021 to July% 2022).

Observations

Projections

Death

Scenarios: Autumn second booster campaign among population aged ‘18+’ or ‘60+’; Vaccine effectiveness is ‘optimistic’(effectiveness as of a booster vaccine against Delta) or ‘pessimistic’ (as against BA.4/BA.5/BA.2.75)

Case

Scenarios: Autumn second booster campaign among population aged ‘18+’ or ‘60+’; Vaccine effectiveness is ‘optimistic’(effectiveness as of a booster vaccine against Delta) or ‘pessimistic’ (as against BA.4/BA.5/BA.2.75)

Infection

Scenarios: Autumn second booster campaign among population aged ‘18+’ or ‘60+’; Vaccine effectiveness is ‘optimistic’(effectiveness as of a booster vaccine against Delta) or ‘pessimistic’ (as against BA.4/BA.5/BA.2.75)

Hosp

Scenarios: Autumn second booster campaign among population aged ‘18+’ or ‘60+’; Vaccine effectiveness is ‘optimistic’(effectiveness as of a booster vaccine against Delta) or ‘pessimistic’ (as against BA.4/BA.5/BA.2.75)

Icu

Scenarios: Autumn second booster campaign among population aged ‘18+’ or ‘60+’; Vaccine effectiveness is ‘optimistic’(effectiveness as of a booster vaccine against Delta) or ‘pessimistic’ (as against BA.4/BA.5/BA.2.75)

Incident outcomes

We explored the incidence of COVID-19 per 100,000 over the projection period and in terms of projected peaks in incidence. We summarised peaks both over the entire projection period, and over only the autumn-winter period (October through March); we considered (A) the timing and maximum weekly incidence of each peak, and (B) the total number of peaks.

Observations

Projections

Over time

Death

Case

Infection

Hosp

Icu

Peaks

Autumn-winter

Projections over October 2022 through March 2023

Death

A. Size and timing of peaks. Boxplots show summary of the likely value at peak incidence (median and interquartile range); points show timing and size of peaks from independent sample simulations

B. Projected number of peaks (median with 5-95% probability)

Scenarios: Autumn second booster campaign among population aged ‘18+’ or ‘60+’; Vaccine effectiveness is ‘optimistic’(effectiveness as of a booster vaccine against Delta) or ‘pessimistic’ (as against BA.4/BA.5/BA.2.75)

Case

A. Size and timing of peaks. Boxplots show summary of the likely value at peak incidence (median and interquartile range); points show timing and size of peaks from independent sample simulations

B. Projected number of peaks (median with 5-95% probability)

Scenarios: Autumn second booster campaign among population aged ‘18+’ or ‘60+’; Vaccine effectiveness is ‘optimistic’(effectiveness as of a booster vaccine against Delta) or ‘pessimistic’ (as against BA.4/BA.5/BA.2.75)

Infection

A. Size and timing of peaks. Boxplots show summary of the likely value at peak incidence (median and interquartile range); points show timing and size of peaks from independent sample simulations

B. Projected number of peaks (median with 5-95% probability)

Scenarios: Autumn second booster campaign among population aged ‘18+’ or ‘60+’; Vaccine effectiveness is ‘optimistic’(effectiveness as of a booster vaccine against Delta) or ‘pessimistic’ (as against BA.4/BA.5/BA.2.75)

Hosp

A. Size and timing of peaks. Boxplots show summary of the likely value at peak incidence (median and interquartile range); points show timing and size of peaks from independent sample simulations

B. Projected number of peaks (median with 5-95% probability)

Scenarios: Autumn second booster campaign among population aged ‘18+’ or ‘60+’; Vaccine effectiveness is ‘optimistic’(effectiveness as of a booster vaccine against Delta) or ‘pessimistic’ (as against BA.4/BA.5/BA.2.75)

Icu

A. Size and timing of peaks. Boxplots show summary of the likely value at peak incidence (median and interquartile range); points show timing and size of peaks from independent sample simulations

B. Projected number of peaks (median with 5-95% probability)

Scenarios: Autumn second booster campaign among population aged ‘18+’ or ‘60+’; Vaccine effectiveness is ‘optimistic’(effectiveness as of a booster vaccine against Delta) or ‘pessimistic’ (as against BA.4/BA.5/BA.2.75)

Entire projection period

Projections over June 2022 through June 2023

Death

A. Size and timing of peaks. Boxplots show summary of the likely value at peak incidence (median and interquartile range); points show timing and size of peaks from independent sample simulations

B. Projected number of peaks (median with 5-95% probability)

Scenarios: Autumn second booster campaign among population aged ‘18+’ or ‘60+’; Vaccine effectiveness is ‘optimistic’(effectiveness as of a booster vaccine against Delta) or ‘pessimistic’ (as against BA.4/BA.5/BA.2.75)

Case

A. Size and timing of peaks. Boxplots show summary of the likely value at peak incidence (median and interquartile range); points show timing and size of peaks from independent sample simulations

B. Projected number of peaks (median with 5-95% probability)

Scenarios: Autumn second booster campaign among population aged ‘18+’ or ‘60+’; Vaccine effectiveness is ‘optimistic’(effectiveness as of a booster vaccine against Delta) or ‘pessimistic’ (as against BA.4/BA.5/BA.2.75)

Infection

A. Size and timing of peaks. Boxplots show summary of the likely value at peak incidence (median and interquartile range); points show timing and size of peaks from independent sample simulations

B. Projected number of peaks (median with 5-95% probability)

Scenarios: Autumn second booster campaign among population aged ‘18+’ or ‘60+’; Vaccine effectiveness is ‘optimistic’(effectiveness as of a booster vaccine against Delta) or ‘pessimistic’ (as against BA.4/BA.5/BA.2.75)

Hosp

A. Size and timing of peaks. Boxplots show summary of the likely value at peak incidence (median and interquartile range); points show timing and size of peaks from independent sample simulations

B. Projected number of peaks (median with 5-95% probability)

Scenarios: Autumn second booster campaign among population aged ‘18+’ or ‘60+’; Vaccine effectiveness is ‘optimistic’(effectiveness as of a booster vaccine against Delta) or ‘pessimistic’ (as against BA.4/BA.5/BA.2.75)

Icu

A. Size and timing of peaks. Boxplots show summary of the likely value at peak incidence (median and interquartile range); points show timing and size of peaks from independent sample simulations

B. Projected number of peaks (median with 5-95% probability)

Scenarios: Autumn second booster campaign among population aged ‘18+’ or ‘60+’; Vaccine effectiveness is ‘optimistic’(effectiveness as of a booster vaccine against Delta) or ‘pessimistic’ (as against BA.4/BA.5/BA.2.75)